Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4648 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day YX 4648 ORD 09:45 → SYR 12:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2481 ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4648 Republic	ORD 09:45	SYR 12:57	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	ORD 13:45	SYR 16:50	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3894 Envoy	ORD 21:23	SYR 00:15	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5707 SkyWest	ORD 09:06	SYR 12:09	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2343 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	SYR 16:48	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SYR 21:09	15%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 4541 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	SYR 10:48	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON