Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 16–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4281 ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest UA 2351 ORD 20:27 → TUL 22:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4281 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:05	TUL 00:06	16%	5%	3.0%	75%
MQ 4098 Envoy	ORD 13:32	TUL 15:33	19%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:29	TUL 10:37	20%	4%	2.4%	86%
MQ 3646 Envoy	ORD 16:57	TUL 19:04	20%	6%	4.0%	no record
UA 5795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	TUL 11:03	22%	6%	1.3%	80%
UA 2351 United	ORD 20:27	TUL 22:23	26%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 4482 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	TUL 17:42	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON