Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2035 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2035 ORD 07:06 → TYS 09:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 795 ORD 18:51 → TYS 21:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2035 United	ORD 07:06	TYS 09:53	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	ORD 08:17	TYS 11:09	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 13:41	TYS 16:30	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3699 Envoy	ORD 19:53	TYS 22:34	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	ORD 17:11	TYS 20:00	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5719 SkyWest	ORD 14:10	TYS 16:51	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 795 United	ORD 18:51	TYS 21:23	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 4551 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	TYS 09:43	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON