Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 59m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	4h 58m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	4h 41m	96%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	6h 28m	99%	82%
American Details →	ORD 11:02 → DFW 13:36AA 1106	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	7h 36m	99%	76%
American Details →	ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	6h 13m	95%	75%
American Details →	ORD 16:37 → MIA 21:01AA 2323	2h 09m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	7h 22m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON