Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1336 ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1101 ORF 16:55 → ATL 18:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ORF 10:16	ATL 12:05	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 2966 Delta Flight history →	ORF 05:15	ATL 06:54	4%	1%	0.5%	92%
DL 1364 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:20	ATL 08:10	5%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1338 Delta Flight history →	ORF 08:00	ATL 09:49	5%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ORF 12:33	ATL 14:18	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ORF 13:50	ATL 15:44	6%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ORF 19:21	ATL 21:19	7%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ORF 16:55	ATL 18:46	8%	2%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON