Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1457 at 12:54, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1457 Southwest	ORF 12:54	BNA 13:48	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	5h 54m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 10m	100%	93%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 23m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 24m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	4h 47m	99%	90%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 11:59 → BNA 12:27AA 2409	6h 41m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 19:10 → ATL 21:07DL 1346	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	5h 05m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 09:56 → LGA 11:22DL 5333 · flown by Endeavor	2h 33m New York	LGA 13:55 → BNA 15:31DL 2748	6h 35m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:59 → JFK 08:18DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m New York	JFK 11:38 → BNA 12:54DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor	6h 55m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON