Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: YX 5794 at 11:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


YX 5794 Republic	ORF 11:36	BOS 13:26	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
B6 1814 JetBlue Flight history →	ORF 19:24	BOS 21:14	20%	8%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 51m	98%	93%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	4h 15m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	7h 27m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 55m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:21 → BOS 14:56DL 1293	6h 56m	99%	91%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 40m	98%	90%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → LGA 07:29AA 4693 · flown by Republic	2h 37m New York	LGA 10:06 → BOS 11:21AA 1050	5h 21m	98%	90%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	3h 46m Washington	DCA 10:45 → BOS 12:35AA 1015	6h 35m	98%	90%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 6122 · flown by Piedmont	47m Philadelphia	PHL 12:56 → BOS 14:38AA 3186	3h 44m	70%	63%
Delta Details →	ORF 12:07 → JFK 13:44DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 14:30 → BOS 16:08DL 5595 · flown by Republic	4h 01m	59%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON