Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3130 ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2519 ORF 19:14 → CLT 20:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3130 American Flight history →	ORF 05:24	CLT 06:39	4%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	ORF 10:26	CLT 11:51	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 5036 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:46	CLT 08:20	8%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 1211 American Flight history →	ORF 14:43	CLT 16:07	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2200 American Flight history →	ORF 15:35	CLT 16:59	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2651 American	ORF 17:11	CLT 18:35	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	ORF 19:14	CLT 20:39	11%	3%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON