Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2274 American Flight history →	ORF 07:03	DFW 09:28	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	ORF 15:16	DFW 17:41	12%	5%	0.6%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 57m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 24m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:56 → LGA 07:25DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m New York	LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856	7h 13m	98%	90%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → LGA 07:29AA 4693 · flown by Republic	3h 33m New York	LGA 11:02 → DFW 13:36AA 2088	8h 36m	99%	90%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	3h 08m Washington	DCA 10:07 → DFW 12:28AA 795	7h 28m	97%	89%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	3h 10m Philadelphia	PHL 10:50 → DFW 13:26AA 3326	8h 03m	99%	88%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:38AA 3130	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 09:14 → DFW 11:02AA 575	6h 38m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	6h 29m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORF 17:53 → EWR 19:47UA 4575 · flown by GoJet	50m Newark	EWR 20:37 → DFW 22:56UA 1277	6h 03m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON