Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1079 ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 3737 ORF 17:14 → DTW 19:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1079 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:05	DTW 07:55	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3066 Delta	ORF 12:48	DTW 14:45	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3737 SkyWest	ORF 17:14	DTW 19:13	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4653 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:37	DTW 14:43	40%	23%	2.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON