Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: G7 4478 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day G7 4478 ORF 06:02 → EWR 07:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4575 ORF 17:53 → EWR 19:47 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4478 GoJet	ORF 06:02	EWR 07:33	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4427 GoJet	ORF 10:51	EWR 12:42	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 4575 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORF 17:53	EWR 19:47	19%	5%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON