tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 59m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 33m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 33m Dulles IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 5h 54m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:51DL 1223 6h 35m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:39DL 2327 6h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORF 19:21 → ATL 21:19DL 1346 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 5h 36m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:39AA 3130 1h 52m Charlotte CLT 08:31 → IAH 10:15AA 2445 5h 51m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORF 16:55 → ATL 18:46DL 1101 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 5h 29m 93% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor 1h 16m Detroit DTW 15:59 → IAH 17:49DL 1718 6h 12m 71% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON