Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2439 at 10:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2439 Southwest	ORF 10:09	MCO 12:12	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
F9 3783 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 19:41	MCO 21:59	19%	9%	4.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	4h 41m	98%	91%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379	5h 03m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	5h 40m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747	7h 03m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 00m	97%	87%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:39AA 3130	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 08:17 → MCO 10:01AA 2170	4h 37m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	5h 58m	99%	85%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	1h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 08:59 → MCO 11:46AA 2084	5h 23m	96%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 6122 · flown by Piedmont	50m Philadelphia	PHL 12:59 → MCO 15:41AA 3153	4h 47m	73%	63%
American Details →	ORF 11:39 → DCA 13:02AA 5509 · flown by PSA	46m Washington	DCA 13:48 → MCO 16:22AA 2509	4h 43m	66%	52%
American Details →	ORF 15:31 → PHL 16:50AA 5859 · flown by Piedmont	1h 11m Philadelphia	PHL 18:01 → MCO 20:49AA 646	5h 18m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON