tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 756 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 756 American Flight history → ORF 06:00 MIA 08:24 6% 3% 1.3% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 42m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 30m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 42m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 23m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → LGA 07:29AA 4693 · flown by Republic 3h 35m New York LGA 11:04 → MIA 14:11AA 2378 8h 11m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA 3h 05m Washington DCA 10:04 → MIA 13:03AA 401 7h 03m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:56 → LGA 07:25DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor 3h 50m New York LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538 8h 28m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:39AA 3130 2h 34m Charlotte CLT 09:13 → MIA 11:24AA 3184 6h 00m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 11:38 → DCA 13:01AA 5509 · flown by PSA 50m Washington DCA 13:51 → MIA 16:44AA 1612 5h 06m 73% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON