Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 5464 at 07:02, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5464 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ORF 07:02	MSP 09:06	7%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	3h 34m Detroit	DTW 11:29 → MSP 12:18DL 1746	7h 13m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	7h 15m	99%	91%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 39m Dulles	IAD 08:46 → MSP 10:33UA 2604	5h 28m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:56 → LGA 07:25DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m New York	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	8h 14m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	6h 51m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:59 → JFK 08:18DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	3h 17m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 51m	99%	90%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:39AA 3130	2h 10m Charlotte	CLT 08:49 → MSP 10:40AA 2972	6h 16m	97%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON