Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5271 ORF 07:27 → PHL 08:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest PT 6055 ORF 17:43 → PHL 19:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5271 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 07:27	PHL 08:43	8%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 5088 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:23	PHL 07:40	9%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ORF 10:45	PHL 12:02	10%	3%	0.7%	78%
OH 5017 PSA	ORF 12:59	PHL 14:16	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
PT 6055 Piedmont	ORF 17:43	PHL 19:08	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON