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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 8h 17m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 29m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861 8h 40m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 04m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 40m Philadelphia PHL 09:20 → SJU 13:33AA 614 7h 10m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:02 → IAH 08:14UA 6331 · flown by Mesa 1h 49m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 40m 97% 81%
JetBlueDetails → ORF 06:00 → FLL 08:18B6 1799 1h 52m Fort Lauderdale FLL 10:10 → SJU 12:48B6 1553 6h 48m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON