Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2436 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 2436 MCO 07:00 → BOS 10:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1152 MCO 15:49 → BOS 19:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2436 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	BOS 10:10	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
B6 852 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:59	BOS 10:13	8%	2%	0.9%	61%
B6 552 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:37	BOS 13:43	15%	5%	1.1%	90%
DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:16	BOS 14:22	18%	7%	0.9%	82%
DL 1474 Delta	MCO 19:55	BOS 22:52	25%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 987 American	MCO 13:06	BOS 16:08	35%	14%	1.2%	no record
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:22	BOS 17:28	41%	23%	1.3%	55%
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:49	BOS 19:00	46%	24%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON