Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 359 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 359 MCO 07:37 → MDW 09:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2071 MCO 16:21 → ORD 18:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 359 Southwest	MCO 07:37	MDW 09:32	5%	1%	1.1%	no record
AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	7%	2%	1.4%	91%
WN 290 Southwest	MCO 10:23	MDW 12:18	8%	1%	1.0%	no record
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	11%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	ORD 10:27	11%	4%	1.3%	76%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:05	ORD 09:11	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 4644 Southwest	MCO 13:04	MDW 15:00	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 10:52	ORD 13:02	13%	5%	0.8%	92%
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:47	ORD 23:08	14%	8%	1.6%	76%
WN 106 Southwest	MCO 15:55	MDW 17:54	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	15%	7%	0.9%	82%
AA 662 American	MCO 11:43	ORD 13:50	16%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 1429 Southwest	MCO 19:14	MDW 21:11	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 679 Southwest	MCO 17:28	MDW 19:27	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 21:47	21%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:27	ORD 17:35	23%	12%	1.7%	64%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	23%	10%	0.9%	72%
UA 2845 United	MCO 17:58	ORD 20:02	26%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:42	ORD 18:53	26%	11%	1.4%	42%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	26%	10%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON