Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4200 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4200 MCO 07:16 → DAL 08:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3118 MCO 16:44 → DFW 18:39 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4200 Southwest	MCO 07:16	DAL 08:59	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	4%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	7%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 2961 American Flight history →	MCO 08:26	DFW 10:29	7%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	8%	3%	0.8%	84%
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:40	DFW 11:39	8%	4%	0.9%	83%
WN 1308 Southwest	MCO 12:32	DAL 14:13	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	MCO 14:36	DAL 16:14	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MCO 12:57	DFW 14:55	14%	5%	0.9%	59%
WN 1162 Southwest	MCO 15:52	DAL 17:30	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:35	DFW 20:41	16%	7%	1.2%	76%
AA 1606 American	MCO 14:38	DFW 16:34	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 268 Southwest	MCO 17:43	DAL 19:21	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MCO 15:34	DFW 17:27	19%	6%	0.9%	70%
AA 2457 American	MCO 17:57	DFW 20:01	19%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 3118 American	MCO 16:44	DFW 18:39	19%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON