Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2871 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2871 MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest WN 662 MCO 17:47 → HOU 19:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2871 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:11	HOU 08:34	3%	1%	0.7%	67%
WN 313 Southwest	MCO 08:54	HOU 10:16	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
WN 4967 Southwest	MCO 10:13	HOU 11:36	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	9%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	10%	4%	1.0%	87%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:15	IAH 17:06	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
WN 46 Southwest	MCO 15:30	HOU 16:52	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:31	IAH 15:11	14%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	15%	7%	1.1%	66%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:32	IAH 21:13	15%	6%	1.3%	76%
WN 662 Southwest	MCO 17:47	HOU 19:08	16%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON