Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3638 MCO 15:24 → LAX 17:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	4%	1%	0.7%	95%
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 325 United	MCO 08:54	LAX 11:05	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1928 American Flight history →	MCO 07:12	LAX 09:25	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 1316 United	MCO 15:05	LAX 17:32	10%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:31	LAX 17:58	10%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 1051 Delta	MCO 17:17	LAX 20:06	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3638 Southwest	MCO 15:24	LAX 17:41	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871	57m Houston	HOU 09:31 → LGB 11:00WN 1950	6h 49m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 30m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON