Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 1098 MCO 17:15 → LGA 20:03 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	3%	1%	0.9%	93%
UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:56	EWR 08:41	3%	2%	1.0%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	4%	1%	1.0%	95%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	5%	2%	1.1%	88%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:02	JFK 08:44	6%	2%	1.1%	53%
DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	6%	2%	1.3%	91%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	7%	3%	1.1%	91%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:45	JFK 12:28	11%	5%	1.6%	68%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:31	EWR 13:18	12%	7%	1.1%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:51	EWR 12:36	12%	5%	1.4%	81%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	15%	6%	1.8%	82%
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:15	EWR 01:07	15%	7%	1.3%	90%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	16%	10%	1.1%	74%
UA 254 United	MCO 11:46	EWR 14:36	17%	9%	1.2%	no record
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	17%	6%	2.3%	84%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:46	JFK 22:32	17%	9%	1.2%	56%
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:52	EWR 15:38	19%	10%	1.2%	no record
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:02	LGA 22:39	21%	9%	1.4%	no record
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:03	EWR 18:56	22%	10%	1.1%	63%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	24%	12%	1.3%	72%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	25%	14%	1.3%	74%
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:13	EWR 21:49	26%	10%	1.2%	no record
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:54	LGA 16:30	26%	12%	1.6%	76%
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:27	EWR 20:09	26%	10%	1.3%	71%
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:24	LGA 14:12	27%	12%	3.2%	no record
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	27%	13%	1.5%	79%
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:08	EWR 21:00	28%	10%	1.2%	no record
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:05	JFK 18:54	31%	13%	1.6%	56%
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:22	LGA 15:04	34%	17%	2.3%	78%worse than usual
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:45	LGA 17:27	39%	18%	2.0%	73%worse than usual
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:02	LGA 20:45	39%	13%	1.6%	41%
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:59	EWR 21:44	40%	15%	1.6%	53%
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	42%	18%	1.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON