Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1733 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1733 MCO 07:34 → MIA 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3654 MCO 18:50 → MIA 19:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
WN 3860 Southwest	MCO 10:38	MIA 11:43	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4056 Southwest	MCO 10:30	FLL 11:37	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 366 American	MCO 11:52	MIA 13:11	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1630 American	MCO 13:06	MIA 14:21	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	17%	5%	1.1%	80%
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:44	MIA 16:59	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 3160 Southwest	MCO 18:41	FLL 19:48	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	23%	10%	1.1%	65%
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:28	MIA 20:50	24%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 3654 Southwest	MCO 18:50	MIA 19:51	25%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON