Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


AS 2437 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PAE 08:00	SAN 10:53	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	1h 29m Portland	PDX 15:03 → SAN 17:31AS 425	4h 58m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:00 → LAS 09:25AS 380	1h 46m Las Vegas	LAS 11:11 → SAN 12:29AS 2416 · flown by Horizon	5h 29m	96%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON