tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 54 at 07:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 54 Alaska PDX 07:00 ABQ 10:44 5% 2% 1.0% no record
AS 2268 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 07:01 ABQ 10:57 6% 1% 0.3% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:56 → SFO 14:45UA 751 3h 56m San Francisco SFO 18:41 → ABQ 22:17UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → ABQ 13:52AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 7h 45m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:20 → ABQ 12:46UA 476 6h 46m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 16:15 → DEN 19:51UA 1787 1h 45m Denver DEN 21:36 → ABQ 23:08UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531 9h 25m 96% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 3h 47m Seattle SEA 18:30 → ABQ 22:24AS 719 7h 36m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON