Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 315 PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 775 PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 315 Alaska	PDX 14:31	ANC 17:30	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1455 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:51	ANC 20:50	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
AS 775 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	ANC 13:22	16%	2%	0.6%	81%
AS 2192 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:30	ANC 00:25	21%	7%	1.9%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 06:57 → ANC 09:45AS 386	5h 45m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON