tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 540 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 AUS 16:38 14% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55DL 3950 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 34m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → AUS 17:15DL 2687 9h 15m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 08:35 → AUS 14:06UA 1107 6h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 44m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:19 → IAD 16:36UA 2016 1h 24m Dulles IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337 10h 16m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 58m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:55UA 2818 2h 04m San Francisco SFO 10:59 → AUS 16:42UA 2432 7h 42m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON