tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 2161 at 11:59, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2161 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → PDX 11:59 BIL 15:02 12% 2% 1.3% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 100% 94%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 14m Denver DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703 7h 22m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 22:20 → BIL 23:30DL 2941 8h 45m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 16:15 → DEN 19:51UA 1787 1h 19m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 5h 39m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 21:25 → BIL 22:50DL 1340 4h 36m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 3h 12m Denver DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17UA 1417 7h 27m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PDX 14:09 → DFW 20:00AA 2496 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy 8h 04m 89% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON