Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	BNA 17:00	18%	3%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	6h 25m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 13:32 → BNA 15:39DL 8949	7h 39m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	9h 38m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	7h 50m	99%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:44 → BNA 13:27UA 355	6h 27m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	6h 41m	96%	84%
United Details →	PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411	4h 00m Denver	DEN 20:28 → BNA 00:08 +1UA 1287	9h 18m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 12:23 → SEA 13:34DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	9h 31m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON