Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 358 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:20	BOS 17:37	13%	3%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 12m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	10h 43m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 51m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518	9h 55m	99%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 09m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	97%	85%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → BOS 17:04UA 2647	8h 49m	98%	85%
American Details →	PDX 06:05 → ORD 12:14AA 3329	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 15:52 → BOS 19:42AA 1162	10h 37m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	53m Seattle	SEA 15:36 → BOS 23:59AS 460	7h 11m	50%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON