tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3120 Southwest PDX 22:44 BWI 06:40 9% 2% 0.6% no record
AS 374 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:12 BWI 15:16 11% 2% 0.7% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357 7h 09m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 42m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 15m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 3h 39m Houston IAH 17:09 → BWI 21:23UA 592 11h 10m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 9h 06m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 47m Denver DEN 14:11 → BWI 19:49UA 363 7h 59m 96% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 9h 04m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m Seattle SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781 7h 03m 58% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON