tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2873 American PDX 21:46 CLT 05:41 9% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CLT 10:40DL 1912 7h 07m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 9h 21m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158 9h 46m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820 9h 02m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 07m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:27 → PHL 15:53AA 3090 3h 08m Philadelphia PHL 19:01 → CLT 21:00AA 2189 10h 33m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 6h 59m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:55 → CLT 15:20UA 2231 7h 20m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 12:03 → DFW 17:54AA 2655 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:42 → CLT 22:23AA 3002 7h 20m 72% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON