Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 459 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 459 PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 1346 PDX 14:49 → DEN 18:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 3123 Southwest	PDX 06:47	DEN 10:18	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:24	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2334 United Flight history →	PDX 18:50	DEN 22:28	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1429 United	PDX 10:37	DEN 14:30	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 4156 Southwest	PDX 10:40	DEN 14:11	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:01	DEN 10:33	13%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 1698 Southwest	PDX 13:29	DEN 17:00	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3124 Southwest	PDX 16:05	DEN 19:35	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 1346 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	DEN 18:19	22%	4%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON