Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 982 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 982 PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2655 PDX 12:03 → DFW 17:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 05:07	DFW 10:57	7%	4%	1.1%	83%
AS 376 Alaska	PDX 07:19	DFW 13:05	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 371 American Flight history →	PDX 07:02	DFW 12:50	10%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 1132 American	PDX 07:56	DFW 13:42	10%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 392 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	DFW 16:42	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:09	DFW 20:01	18%	8%	1.0%	74%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PDX 12:03	DFW 17:54	19%	8%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON