Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 07:19, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1327 Delta	PDX 12:00	DTW 19:14	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	8h 09m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	6h 27m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	10h 22m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	10h 38m	99%	89%
American Details →	PDX 06:05 → ORD 12:14AA 3329	56m Chicago	ORD 13:10 → DTW 15:33AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	6h 28m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:28 → DTW 23:59DL 2255	7h 44m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 07:05 → JFK 15:46DL 451	3h 44m New York	JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253	11h 59m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON