Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, SY 3037 at 04:52, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


SY 3037 Sun Country	PDX 04:52	FAI 07:53	11%	3%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:11AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 12:22 → FAI 15:21AS 230	8h 12m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 09:51 → FAI 12:43AS 381	7h 24m	99%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON