tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3202 SkyWest PDX 14:40 FAT 16:43 9% 4% 0.6% no record
AS 3024 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 18:58 FAT 20:56 9% 4% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:43 → FAT 17:39UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → PDX 09:02 → PHX 11:43AA 2658 2h 24m Phoenix PHX 14:07 → FAT 16:05AA 1919 7h 03m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → FAT 13:47AA 1329 8h 40m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 09:13 → SAN 11:39AS 721 2h 44m San Diego SAN 14:23 → FAT 15:52AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:28 → FAT 20:52UA 756 8h 02m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394 56m San Diego SAN 14:23 → FAT 15:52AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 75% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON