Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2016 United Flight history →	PDX 08:19	IAD 16:36	7%	2%	0.5%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 13m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	9h 04m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	10h 19m	99%	89%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 49m Denver	DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087	7h 53m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	10h 04m	99%	88%
United Details →	PDX 12:56 → SFO 14:45UA 751	1h 49m San Francisco	SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453	8h 59m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 14m	98%	86%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 14:24 → IAD 17:15UA 587	7h 15m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON