Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 462 PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1927 PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 462 United Flight history →	PDX 07:13	IAH 13:30	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 1420 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:05	IAH 13:35	10%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 1927 United Flight history →	PDX 13:02	IAH 19:21	13%	4%	0.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 33m Denver	DEN 10:04 → IAH 13:24UA 2030	6h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:30 → IAH 13:37DL 1532	5h 52m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 08m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON