Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 451 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 451 PDX 07:05 → JFK 15:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 18 PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 451 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:05	JFK 15:46	9%	4%	1.0%	93%
DL 2139 Delta Flight history →	PDX 12:49	JFK 21:02	20%	7%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
AS 18 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:47	JFK 19:23	24%	8%	1.2%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 06m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:05 +1DL 2692	7h 20m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	7h 32m	94%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON