tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 834 Alaska PDX 08:14 KOA 11:15 14% 3% 0.5% no record
AS 252 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:31 KOA 10:19 15% 3% 0.5% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 8h 25m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 44m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:58 → SFO 15:08UA 751 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 18:59 → KOA 21:41UA 1723 11h 43m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:36DL 989 11h 43m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 46m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 11h 03m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:07 → SAN 09:37AS 577 2h 01m San Diego SAN 11:38 → KOA 14:21AS 222 10h 14m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:01 → LAX 15:22DL 2766 1h 22m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 9h 16m 93% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:06 → SEA 09:03AS 376 57m Seattle SEA 10:00 → KOA 12:47AS 709 7h 41m 50% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON