Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 335 PDX 05:54 → LAS 08:02 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 778 PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 335 Southwest	PDX 05:54	LAS 08:02	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 1403 Alaska	PDX 09:02	LAS 11:12	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 801 Southwest	PDX 13:16	LAS 15:23	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1276 Southwest	PDX 16:05	LAS 18:13	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 531 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	LAS 20:12	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:46	LAS 17:06	11%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON