Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2947 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2947 PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1391 PDX 20:17 → LAX 22:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2947 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:30	LAX 09:00	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	PDX 10:53	LAX 13:18	7%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 581 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:37	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:25	LAX 15:47	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 6290 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 06:28	LAX 08:50	10%	4%	0.5%	85%
AS 695 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAX 13:20	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	11%	5%	0.6%	88%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
AS 647 Alaska	PDX 13:50	LAX 16:08	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 713 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:45	LAX 17:12	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 1391 Alaska	PDX 20:17	LAX 22:37	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON