tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 490 at 07:02, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 490 Alaska PDX 07:02 MCI 12:26 8% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 12m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 10h 21m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 16m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 5h 32m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 55m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58DL 1657 7h 13m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PDX 14:09 → DFW 20:00AA 2496 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 8h 14m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00DL 2256 5h 30m 74% 60%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 51m Seattle SEA 08:08 → MCI 13:33AS 501 5h 14m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON