Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 300 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	MCO 15:49	14%	4%	2.3%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	10h 07m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	2h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	10h 14m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	10h 13m	99%	85%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 24m Denver	DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501	7h 49m	96%	85%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 39m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	99%	84%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:55UA 2818	3h 45m San Francisco	SFO 12:40 → MCO 21:14UA 1939	11h 14m	99%	83%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 44m San Francisco	SFO 08:45 → MCO 17:21UA 583	9h 06m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	9h 21m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON