Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3012 PDX 14:30 → MFR 15:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3101 PDX 17:27 → MFR 18:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3012 SkyWest	PDX 14:30	MFR 15:47	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3101 SkyWest	PDX 17:27	MFR 18:44	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 2163 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:45	MFR 18:48	13%	7%	2.2%	87%
AS 2125 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:52	MFR 15:54	15%	3%	0.0%	85%
AS 2266 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 22:04	MFR 23:06	21%	6%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON