Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 2146 at 10:58, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 2146 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 10:58	MSO 13:32	10%	4%	1.3%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:03 → MSO 12:39DL 1723	5h 54m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:46 → MSO 00:22 +1DL 1824	6h 08m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → MSO 12:30AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	5h 11m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:11AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 12:47 → MSO 15:13AS 660	6h 04m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:11AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → MSO 12:30AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	3h 21m	36%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON