Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2612 PDX 07:54 → OAK 09:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1581 PDX 16:52 → OAK 18:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2612 Southwest	PDX 07:54	OAK 09:39	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 8506 Southwest	PDX 11:01	OAK 13:00	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3130 SkyWest	PDX 10:43	OAK 12:39	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4248 Southwest	PDX 11:29	OAK 13:14	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3267 SkyWest	PDX 19:53	OAK 21:49	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1581 Southwest	PDX 16:52	OAK 18:38	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON