tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 23% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 889 Alaska PDX 07:07 OGG 09:54 16% 2% 0.5% no record
AS 353 Alaska Flight history → PDX 14:44 OGG 17:31 18% 3% 0.5% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 30m 97% 86%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 14:00 → SAN 16:24AS 1312 2h 31m San Diego SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55AS 483 10h 55m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 41m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:58 → SFO 15:08UA 751 1h 32m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 9h 19m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:55UA 2818 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 34m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 23m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 12h 12m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:06 → SAN 09:36AS 577 51m San Diego SAN 10:27 → OGG 12:59AS 249 8h 53m 62% 46%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:05 → SEA 09:02AS 376 1h 13m Seattle SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929 8h 14m 66% 44%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 48m Seattle SEA 08:05 → OGG 11:19AS 245 8h 00m 23% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON